Introduction

Transition Management

In 2000, the Dutch National Environmental Policy Plan argued that in order to solve a number of persistent environmental problems, there is need of fundamental change of our societal structures (VROM, 2000). Transition theory describes broad, long-term and structural societal changes and explains their mutual interaction. (Rotmans et al., 2000) define a transition as: a non-linear process of social change in which the structure of a societal system (energy sector, water management, agriculture, mobility) transforms. Transitions are the result of technological, economic, ecological, social-cultural and institutional developments on different scale levels that influence and reinforce each other (Rotmans, et al. 2000). Transitions involve system innovations that reinforce each other.

Scientific research at DRIFT revolves around transition dynamics and transition management. Research into the dynamics of dynamics focuses on pattern recognition and demarcation of transition phases. Transition management focuses on possibilities of influencing these patterns and how.

Transition dynamics

Patterns of the transition dynamics are investigated using three analytical tools:

• multi-phase: transitions go through four phases, the predevelopment, the take-off, the acceleration and the stabilization phase;
• multi-level: transitions are the result of interacting dynamics on the macro-level, the meso-level and the micro-level;
• multi-change: transitions are the result of mutually reinforcing processes of building up of new – and breaking down old societal structures.

New governance concept

Transition management is a new governance concept based on complexity theory, social theories and new forms of governance. The concept is situated between two different views of governance: the incremental ‘learning by doing’ approach and the blueprint planning approach. Transition management is a process- oriented and participatory steering philosophy that enables social learning through iterations
between collective vision development and experimenting.

Transition management is the outcome of a multitude of individual and collective decisions by different actors who act and react to new circumstances. Due to the complexity of society it is not possible to determine the transition in advance, but influencing transition processes through coordination and organization.

Sustainable Development

Transition management aims to facilitate transitions towards sustainable development. Sustainable development can be regarded as ‘development that meets the needs of the current generation, without compromising the needs of future generations’ (WCED). Sustainability encompasses a scale and context-specific balance between ecological, economic and socio-cultural values and stakes. Many transitions from the past have proved to be not sustainable on environmental dimensions.

Pattern recognition of transition dynamics is based on three conceptual pillars: the multi-phase concept, the multi-level concept and the multi-change concept. The transition management steering model is both a prescriptive and descriptive management model based on management principles that are derived from the patterns in transition dynamics.

Multi-phase

The multi-phase concept distinguishes four transition phases:

1. A pre-development phase of dynamic equilibrium where the status quo does not visibly change.
2. 2. A take-off phase where the process of change starts to get under way because the state of the system begins to shift.
3. An acceleration phase where visible structural changes take place through an accumulation of socio-cultural, economic, ecological and institutional changes, which all influence each other. In the acceleration phase, there are collective learning processes, diffusion and imbedding processes.
4. A stabilization phase where the speed of social change reduces and a new dynamic balance is reached from the experiences gained.

Multi-level

The multi-level concept distinguishes three levels of scale. At the macro-level the societal landscape is determined by changes in the macro economy, political culture, demography, natural environment, and worldviews and paradigms. This level responds to relatively slow trends and developments. At the meso-level the dynamics are determined by the regime, which contains the assemblage of dominant actors, artifacts, practices, rules and shared assumptions. The micro-level (niche-level) contains individual actors, technologies and local practices. At this level, variations to and deviations from the status quo may thrive.

Multi-change

Transitions are transformation processes from an initial societal equilibrium towards a new self-organized equilibrium through a period of rapid and successive dynamics (illustrated by the S-curve). The multi-change perspective approaches these dynamics in terms of creation and development of new structures and destruction of (undesired) present structures. Following from complex systems science, transitions are shifts between two societal attractors. In the course of transitions the nature of the change process change varies.

Transition management approach

In the Netherlands, the approach of transition management is a steering model to organize and structure transition management activities in so-called transition-arenas (Loorbach, 2002, Dirven et al. 2002, Loorbach and Rotmans, 2004). The transition-arena is best viewed as a virtual arena or network, which provides room for long-term reflection and prolonged experimentation. Through the use of different steering instruments, ranging from scenario studies, participatory methods and regular instruments such as pricing, subsidies and regulation, the initial arena has to evolve into a growing network based on a mutually defined direction for the future. The transition-arena in its first phase is explicitly placed outside the arenas of day-to-day politics and policies but has to be supported by political or regime-powers (but not dictated by it, for example through the support of a minister, director etc).

Within such a transition-network, each actor has to redefine their own role, their competences and their modus operandi in interaction and co-production with the other actors. Through such a process of co-production and co-ordination, actors at different levels will be able to formulate joint goals and develop common strategies that involve societal uncertainties, power-relations, institutional barriers as well as ambitions, targets and desires. This way, a new structure of collective governance emerges whereby government is at the same time facilitator and one of the players. Because of the evolutionary nature of transitions, such an adaptive multi-level approach, whereby uncertainties and risk are acknowledged and dealt with, is better fit to develop policies on complex and structural societal problems. The model that is currently used in the Netherlands to implement transition management consists of 4 basic activity-clusters (Loorbach, 2002, Loorbach and Rotmans, 2004). Depending on the progress of the transition management process (process goals) as well as the development of the actual societal processes (content goals), the activities can be executed sequentially or in parallel, which emphasizes the importance of monitoring and evaluation throughout the process. In practice, transition management will take its shape based on the subject at hand, the actors involved and the competences of the organization.